Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [7]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9 emphasized stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, indicating a positive outlook for the real estate sector. The real estate development sentiment index for November was 92.62, marking the seventh consecutive month of improvement. The report suggests that under the influence of policies, both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown significant improvement, with a strong likelihood of continued stability in the real estate market [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 1.1 New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 3.2416 million square meters, with a cumulative new housing transaction area for the year of 10,212.26 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.5%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 3.1496 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 7.4% [10][18]. - In first-tier cities, the average transaction area over the past four weeks was 1.1194 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 4.7%. In second-tier cities, the average was 1.6225 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8% and a month-on-month increase of 10.6%. In third-tier cities, the average was 407,700 square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [10][18]. 1.2 Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - Last week, the transaction area of second-hand housing in 12 key cities was 2.5711 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area for the year of 8,266.89 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 2.4458 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 58.4% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [25][27]. 1.3 Land Market Transactions - Last week, 13 residential land plots were newly supplied and sold in 100 major cities, with 111 commercial land plots newly supplied and 233 sold. The average transaction quantity to supply ratio for residential land over the past four weeks was 0.91, and for commercial land, it was 0.92. The average floor price for residential land was 3,441.97 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 0.23%, and for commercial land, it was 3,266.17 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.94% [32]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan一级房地产行业 index fell by 1.85%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.01%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.85 percentage points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 0.96%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 0.4%, showing that the property services and management index underperformed the Hang Seng Composite by 1.35 percentage points [36][38].
房地产行业报告：稳住楼市股市 地产有望持续向好
China Post Securities·2024-12-17 03:49