Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The computer sector is expected to see stable revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 849.848 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.29%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 29.74% year-on-year [17] - The sector's gross margin and net margin have both decreased, with gross margin at 25.25% and net margin at 2.11% for the first three quarters of 2024. Future improvements in profitability are anticipated due to fiscal stimulus policies and improved payment conditions in downstream sectors [17] - The computer sector index has shown a cumulative increase of 16.08% in 2024, ranking 9th among 31 industry sectors [20][22] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review: Starting Point of a New Technology Cycle - The computer sector has experienced stable revenue growth since 2014, with a projected revenue of 849.848 billion yuan in 2024, a 6.29% increase year-on-year. However, net profit has fluctuated significantly, with a decline of 29.74% in the first three quarters of 2024 [17] 2. Policy Driven: Debt Relief Measures and Industry Development - Significant debt relief measures have been introduced, with a total of 12 trillion yuan in hidden local government debt expected to be resolved, which is anticipated to improve G-end business orders and project acceptance [31] - The domestic information technology industry is entering a critical phase, with the scale expected to grow from 2,096.19 billion yuan in 2023 to 3,701.13 billion yuan by 2027 [33] - The release of the HarmonyOS NEXT by Huawei marks a significant advancement in the domestic operating system landscape, with its market share increasing from 8% in Q1 2023 to 17% in Q1 2024, surpassing Apple's iOS in China [38] 3. Technology News: AI and Low-altitude Economy - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with major companies developing multi-modal AI applications. The demand for AI computing power is surging, leading to a rapid rise in domestic AI computing capabilities [20] - The low-altitude economy is recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with significant investments in air traffic management systems expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2016 to 5.98 billion yuan in 2021, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24.18% [20] 4. Recommended Stocks - The report highlights several companies within the industry that are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends and policies, including those involved in AI computing, data elements, and low-altitude operations [42]
计算机：政策春风，产业蓄势
China Post Securities·2024-12-17 03:50