宏观：促销的透支效应

Consumption Trends - In November, the retail sales growth rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 3%, with commodity retail falling significantly by 2.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while dining consumption increased by 0.8 percentage points to 4%[3]. - The retail sales growth trend in November appears to mirror that of June, where promotional events like "Double Eleven" boosted October sales but suppressed November figures[3]. - The cumulative retail sales growth from May to June was only 2.8%, below the average growth rate of approximately 3.5% for the year, while the cumulative growth for October to November was 3.9%, above the year's growth center[3]. Policy Impact and Consumer Behavior - Automotive consumption, primarily driven by offline sales and less affected by online promotions, saw a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in November, recovering from a decline of -7.3% in August[5]. - Dining consumption reached a new high of 4% in November, supported by government subsidies, including 360 million yuan in dining vouchers issued in Shanghai[5]. - The overall consumer spending is expected to improve in the coming year, particularly in dining and tourism, as local governments begin to provide subsidies to stimulate these sectors[9]. Consumer Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the positive trends in automotive and dining sectors, optional consumption categories like travel and entertainment showed negative growth rates of -6.5% and -8.5% respectively, indicating a slow recovery in consumer sentiment[16]. - The overall consumer spending growth is primarily driven by government policies, highlighting the need for improved consumer capacity and willingness to spend in the optional consumption sectors[16]. - The effectiveness of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy may diminish as the year-end approaches, necessitating attention to future policy continuity and its impact on consumer spending[11].