促销的透支效应

Consumption Trends - In November, the retail sales growth rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 3%, with a significant drop in goods retail by 2.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while dining consumption increased by 0.8 percentage points to 4%[3] - The retail sales growth trend in November may mirror that of June, where promotional events like "618" and "Double Eleven" affected sales patterns[3] - The cumulative retail sales growth from May to June was only 2.8%, below the average growth rate of approximately 3.5% for the year, while the cumulative growth for October and November was 3.9%, above the year's growth center[3] Policy Impact - Automotive consumption, primarily offline, saw a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in November, supported by policy subsidies, recovering from a decline of -7.3% in August[5] - Dining consumption has become a focus of recent policy subsidies, with Shanghai issuing 360 million yuan in dining vouchers, and other regions following suit with similar initiatives[5] - The government is expected to increase subsidies for dining and tourism in 2024 to stabilize and boost consumption[9] Consumer Behavior - Durable goods consumption is showing signs of weakness, with optional consumption and entertainment sectors experiencing negative growth rates of -6.5% and -8.5% respectively in November[16] - The overall consumer recovery is heavily reliant on policy measures, with the underlying consumer capacity and willingness still lagging[16] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated year-end consumption growth, but its effectiveness may weaken as the promotional period ends[11]