2024年中央经济工作会议点评：政策加码路径逐步清晰，规模仍有待确认

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to recognize difficulties and maintain confidence in the economy[3] - The meeting highlighted that the economic situation remains challenging, particularly due to insufficient domestic demand and employment pressures[3] Policy Direction - The overall tone for macroeconomic regulation is shifting towards a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on enhancing policy synergy[7] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to exceed the traditional 3% limit, indicating a significant increase in fiscal stimulus measures[8] Financial Measures - The government plans to increase the issuance of special bonds and local government bonds, with an expected total issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan[8] - Monetary policy is expected to shift from "stable" to "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in response to economic conditions[9] Consumer and Investment Focus - Expanding domestic demand has been prioritized, with a specific focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency[15] - The government aims to enhance social welfare measures to stimulate consumer spending, including increasing pensions and healthcare subsidies[16] Real Estate and Local Debt - The meeting indicated a focus on stabilizing the real estate market without initiating a new round of price increases, while local debt risks have been significantly reduced[23] - The government plans to implement measures to support the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, with a target of 1 million units[24]