A股策略周报：三论市场风格
Tianfeng Securities·2024-12-17 05:41

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued divergence between large and small-cap stocks, with small-cap indices like the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 showing cumulative returns of 54.03% and 45.22% respectively since September 24, compared to 25.39% and 23.84% for large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and CSI A50 [2][15][16] - The Pring cycle framework indicates that large-cap indices perform better in stages 3 and 4, which are characterized by economic recovery, while the current market is in stage 2, raising concerns about the sustainability of economic recovery post-policy stimulus [3][18][27] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies and the transmission from broad monetary policy to credit expansion, as well as the potential for interest rate differentials to impact market dynamics [3][37][38] Group 2 - Domestic social financing showed a slight decline in November, with new RMB loans decreasing by 5,897 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a tightening credit environment [4][50][51] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2% in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrower decline of 2.5%, suggesting mixed inflationary pressures [4][55][56] - November's trade data revealed a decrease in both export and import growth rates, with exports rising by 6.7% and imports declining by 3.9%, reflecting a cooling in external demand [4][66][73] Group 3 - The report suggests a focus on sectors driven by policy and thematic rotations, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, as the market is characterized by high volatility and rapid theme shifts [6][34] - The central government's economic meetings have outlined plans for more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the economy [4][31][32] - The report indicates that the market is currently in a "strong expectations, weak reality" phase, where policy changes may take time to manifest in actual economic improvements [6][18][27]