钢铁行业周报：矿价震荡，宏观政策释放积极信号

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the steel industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The budget for debt resolution aligns with expectations, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy implementation and supply-side policies. Starting in 2024, China will allocate 800 billion yuan annually from new local government special bonds for debt resolution, potentially replacing 4 trillion yuan of hidden debt over five years. This, combined with a 6 trillion yuan debt limit approved by the National People's Congress, increases local debt resolution resources to 10 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The macroeconomic policy has shown a clear shift, with the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need for more proactive fiscal policies and a moderate monetary policy. This is expected to support the steel price rebound, with limited chances of significant declines in black commodity prices due to macro factors [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The steel sector declined by 0.79%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.44 percentage points [15]. Fundamental Tracking - National steel prices have generally increased, with iron ore inventories rising. The average price for rebar in Guangzhou was 3,664 yuan per ton, with a weekly change of +70 yuan [18]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased to 82.29%, with a weekly production of 8.615 million tons, down by 5.8 million tons [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights key industry news, including a memorandum signing for a steel deep processing project in Chongqing, which aims for an annual production capacity of 700,000 tons [57]. - Major company announcements include Xining Special Steel's absorption of its wholly-owned subsidiary to optimize management and reduce operational costs [57]. Price Trends - Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile, with a global shipment of 31.55 million tons reported, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 698,000 tons [3]. - The report notes that the profitability of steel products remains weak, with hot-rolled steel margins at 44 yuan per ton, down by 19 yuan [4][5]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hunan Valin Steel, as the steel sector's profitability is at a low point, and macroeconomic policies combined with supply-side constraints may provide upward momentum [2][3].