2025年房地产行业年度策略：周期拐点已至，结构性复苏一触即发

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has experienced significant declines and is nearing a cyclical turning point, with current conditions resembling those of Japan in the early 1990s. The market has seen a more than 45% drop in sales compared to the peak in 2021, indicating an excessive adjustment phase [10][20]. - The government has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including monetary and fiscal measures, which are expected to work in tandem to support recovery [2][20]. - The recovery will likely be characterized by a differentiated market, with first-tier cities leading the way, followed by second-tier cities that have shown resilience [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Conditions - The real estate market has seen a cumulative sales decline of over 45% compared to 2021, with sales volume reaching a ten-year low [10][11]. - The sales area for new homes is projected to decrease by 6.7% to 910 million square meters in 2025, while the total housing sales volume is expected to be 1.39 billion square meters [3][36]. 2. Policy Environment - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stabilize the market, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan policies [2][20]. - The political bureau has emphasized the need for a stable housing market, indicating a shift towards more supportive measures [2][20]. 3. Market Recovery Predictions - The report predicts a gradual recovery in the real estate market, with first-tier cities showing signs of stabilization and second-tier cities expected to follow suit [2][20]. - The recovery in the second-hand housing market is anticipated to be a key driver for the overall market recovery, with second-hand transactions increasingly outpacing new home sales [2][20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several real estate companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery, including China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments [4][42]. - The focus is on companies that have maintained a strong presence in core cities and have adapted their strategies in response to market conditions [4][42]. 5. Core Indicator Forecasts - The report forecasts a 10.3% decline in real estate development investment to 890 billion yuan in 2025, with land acquisition costs expected to decrease by 10% to 320 billion yuan [3][41][43].