Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (First Time) [1] Core Views - The alumina market is expected to see a tight supply-demand situation in 2024, with prices remaining strong due to limited raw material supply [3] - By 2025, the tight supply of alumina is expected to ease, and profits may gradually shift to electrolytic aluminum companies [3] - Global aluminum production growth is slowing, but the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to be driven by green development, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and power [3] Supply and Demand Analysis Alumina Market - Global bauxite reserves are concentrated, with Guinea, Vietnam, and Australia holding significant shares [3] - China's bauxite reserves account for only 2% of the global total, and domestic production is constrained by environmental policies and declining ore quality [3] - Global alumina production has grown from 10,806 million tons in 2013 to 14,331 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% [3] - In 2024, domestic alumina production is expected to increase by 1,120 million tons, with most new capacity coming online in Q1-Q2, potentially leading to a price decline [3] Electrolytic Aluminum Market - Global aluminum production grew from 42.35 million tons in 2010 to 70.72 million tons in 2023, with China accounting for 59% of global production [3] - In 2025, domestic aluminum production is expected to increase by 2.1 million tons, with overseas production growth slowing due to high costs and energy issues [3] - Long-term demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to be driven by green development, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and power [3] Investment Recommendations - In 2025, alumina prices may start high but are expected to face downward pressure due to sufficient global supply and new capacity coming online [3] - Profits are likely to shift from alumina to electrolytic aluminum companies, with potential supply-demand mismatches due to raw material supply and equipment maintenance issues [3] - Companies with significant electrolytic aluminum capacity and no alumina production, such as Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, Yunnan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Chalco, are recommended [3] Key Data and Trends - Global bauxite production increased from 260 million tons in 2014 to 400 million tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 5.1% [3] - Guinea is expected to contribute 24 million tons of the 31 million tons of global bauxite production increase in 2025 [3] - Domestic alumina profits reached a historical high of 2,473 yuan/ton in November 2024, a 941% increase year-on-year [3] - Global alumina capacity utilization has remained around 80% over the past decade, but dropped to 57.7% in the first nine months of 2024 due to raw material shortages and environmental issues [43]
工业金属行业专题研究:氧化铝:2025年供需紧张有望缓解,利润或逐渐向电解铝转移
国盛证券·2024-12-17 06:37