Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the social services industry, with key companies such as China Tourism Group Duty Free, Wangfujing, and Jinjiang Hotels all rated as "Overweight" [1][2] Core Views - The importance of consumption is increasing, with continuous policy support, including the State Council's issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption" and adjustments to statutory holidays after 17 years [2] - The social services industry's institutional holdings are at historical lows, with public fund holdings in the sector at 0.17% in Q3 2024, down from a peak of 1.51% in Q1 2021 [3] - The report is optimistic about the dual investment opportunities of domestic demand improvement and mergers and acquisitions, particularly in sectors like hotels, catering, and tourism [3] - Emotional consumption is leading the new "necessity," with service consumption benefiting from the shift from rational to emotional consumer needs [4] Sector Analysis Consumption and Policy Support - Service consumption is becoming a significant driver of domestic demand and employment, with service consumption expenditure accounting for 45.6% of per capita consumption expenditure in H1 2024, up 0.4 percentage points from 2023 [15] - The employment share in the tertiary industry has risen from 27.5% in 2000 to 48.1% in 2023, driven by urbanization and the expansion of consumer service industries [18] - Retail sales have improved steadily since September 2024, supported by policies such as local debt resolution and stimulus measures in sectors like home appliances and automobiles [22] Tourism and Leisure - The tourism sector has shown resilience, with domestic tourist trips reaching 4.237 billion in Q1-Q3 2024, a 15.3% YoY increase, and total spending reaching 4.35 trillion yuan, up 17.9% YoY [41] - The report highlights the potential for supply-side optimization and asset integration in the tourism sector, particularly in non-first-tier cities where mass tourism is growing strongly [52] Education and AI Integration - The K12 education sector is entering a period of performance realization, with leading companies showing rapid growth in revenue and profits in Q1-Q3 2024 [59] - AI technology is being increasingly integrated into education, with applications in special education, vocational training, and personalized learning experiences [63] Hotels and Human Resources - The hotel industry is showing signs of recovery, with RevPAR in Q4 2024 expected to improve due to low base effects and increased demand from fiscal stimulus [72] - The human resources sector is benefiting from the growth of flexible staffing, with companies like Career International and Beijing Human Resources showing strong performance in Q3 2024 [84] Duty-Free and Retail - The duty-free sector has faced challenges in 2024, with Hainan's offshore duty-free sales down 32% YoY in the first 10 months, but there are signs of stabilization in sales declines [93] - The report suggests that the expansion of duty-free policies, including the opening of downtown duty-free shops, could provide significant growth opportunities for duty-free operators [106]
社服行业2025年度策略：政策发力，聚焦内需改善和并购重组双主线
兴业证券·2024-12-17 06:41