Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The food and beverage industry has experienced a significant slowdown in growth since 2020, with further narrowing in 2024 [10] - Despite the overall slowdown, emerging markets such as pre-made meals, baked goods, health products, and tea drinks are showing growth, reflecting consumer upgrading trends [10] - The industry's return on equity (ROE) has been declining, with the overall ROE dropping from 13.73% in the first phase to 8.78% in 2024 [36] - However, certain sub-sectors like liquor and beer have seen continuous improvement in ROE, with liquor's ROE rising from 18.71% to 22.58% and beer's from 8.21% to 14.8% [42] Market Performance - The secondary market performance of the food and beverage sector has been weak, with the sector declining by 51.98% from its peak in 2021 to November 2024 [52] - Only soft drinks and snacks recorded positive returns in the secondary market during this period, while other sub-sectors like meat products, pre-made meals, and dairy products saw significant declines [54] 2025 Industry Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report predicts that the growth center of the food and beverage market will continue to sink, especially for traditional categories [63] - Cost advantages are expected to help companies withstand revenue declines, with a friendly cost environment likely to persist in 2025 [77][79] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in pre-made meals, baked goods, pre-mixed drinks, health products, snacks, and yeast [83] - Pre-made meals are in the early stages of development, with strong companies expected to maintain high growth levels despite an overall decline in the sector [87] - Baked goods are expected to maintain high growth in the medium term, despite a slowdown in 2024 [88] - The pre-mixed drink market is in a stage similar to the beer market in 2018, with head brands entering a period of market expansion and profit release [88] - Health products are expected to maintain a strong growth trend, both domestically and internationally, with domestic market recovery showing positive signs [92] - The snack industry experienced high growth in 2024, with relatively healthy market and channel conditions [93] - The yeast industry is benefiting from falling upstream costs and is expected to see profit release, with strong growth in overseas markets [93] Key Investment Targets - The report highlights several key investment targets, including Jinzai Food, Ligao Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Angel Yeast, Xianle Health, Anjoy Food, and Bright Dairy [96]
2025年食品饮料行业投资策略：行业中枢下沉，寻找相对高增的资产
中原证券·2024-12-17 07:56