银行业2024年11月金融数据点评：化债置换影响信贷读数，居民中长期持续回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The social financing growth rate remains stable at 7.8%, with a new social financing of 2.34 trillion yuan in November 2024, which is a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan [5][6] - The issuance of local government special bonds for debt replacement has accelerated, leading to a gradual replacement of some loans [6] - The report highlights a significant recovery in long-term loans for residents, driven by favorable real estate policies and a reduction in mortgage rates [2][16] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In November 2024, the new social financing totaled 2.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. The breakdown includes: - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 522.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 589.7 billion yuan [5][6] - Non-standard financing increased by 81.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.6 billion yuan [6] - Direct financing totaled 285.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.8 billion yuan, with corporate bonds contributing 242.8 billion yuan and stocks 42.7 billion yuan [5][6] - Government bonds increased by 1.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.9 billion yuan, effectively supporting social financing growth [5][6] Credit Structure - The total new RMB loans in November 2024 amounted to 580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51 billion yuan. The details are as follows: - Corporate loans increased by 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan [2][16] - Retail loans increased by 270 billion yuan, with long-term loans for residents rising by 300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9 billion yuan [2][16] - The report notes a decrease in loans from non-bank financial institutions by 70.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4 billion yuan [16] Deposit Growth - In November 2024, new deposits totaled 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 360 billion yuan. The structure includes: - Resident deposits increased by 790 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 118.9 billion yuan [3][21] - Corporate deposits increased by 740 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 491.3 billion yuan [3][21] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 180 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan [3][21]