【浙商宏观||李超】11月财政:风雨无阻更向前

Revenue Insights - In November, the national general public budget revenue reached 1,402.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.0% compared to 5.5% in the previous month[5] - Tax revenue in November was 1,114.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reflecting a solid trend of fiscal recovery[5] - Non-tax revenue contributed significantly, with a cumulative achievement of 37,088 billion yuan from January to November, marking a 17% year-on-year increase[5] Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure in November was 2,358.8 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year, down from 10.4% in October[6] - From January to November, total expenditure reached 2,450.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%[6] - Central government expenditure was 360.0 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 2,090.53 billion yuan, growing by 1.9%[6] Fiscal Balance and Projections - The completion rate for the general public budget revenue from January to November was 81.9%, while the expenditure completion rate was 80.4%, both slower than the same period in 2023[2] - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain manageable, with the completion of annual budget targets likely achievable[7] - Social security and employment expenditures have progressed rapidly, reaching 92.1% of the budget, indicating a focus on maintaining essential services[7] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue in November decreased by 14.9% year-on-year, with land transfer income dropping by 19.7%[11] - From January to November, government fund budget revenue totaled 42,348 billion yuan, down 18.4% year-on-year, with local government income declining by 20.2%[11] - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with new housing sales volume improving in November, indicating a stabilization in market expectations[12][13]