煤炭行业2025年年度策略：周期机遇待时而动，红利良机以进固稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for key companies in the coal industry, recommending "Buy" for Shaanxi Coal and "Hold" for China Shenhua, among others [1][2]. Core Insights - The coal industry has experienced a decline in prices but with reduced volatility, leading to a phase of excess returns in the first half of 2024. The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal has decreased by 8.9% year-to-date, while the overall performance of the coal sector has lagged behind the market by 5.6% [2][10]. - Economic expectations are improving, with coal demand remaining resilient, particularly from the electricity and chemical sectors. GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.3%, with electricity consumption increasing by 3.3% and chemical industry consumption rising over 10% [2][29]. - Supply dynamics are shifting, with production capacity growth concentrated in Xinjiang, while costs are expected to rise due to increased mining depth and transportation distances [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Performance - The coal price has slightly decreased, but the sector achieved significant excess returns in the first half of 2024, outperforming the market by 12.2% from January to June [10]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal was 820 RMB/ton as of December 4, 2024, down from 900 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year [15][10]. 2. Demand Analysis - The demand for coal is supported by a resilient economy, with the second industry contributing significantly to GDP growth. The chemical sector's coal consumption has notably increased, compensating for declines in metallurgy and construction [29][31]. - In the first nine months of 2024, coal consumption in the power sector grew by 3.1%, while chemical consumption surged by 17.7% [31]. 3. Supply Analysis - Domestic coal production has turned positive, with growth primarily in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, offsetting reductions in Shanxi due to production limits [2][29]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring rising costs associated with deeper mining operations and increased transportation distances [2][29]. 4. Import Coal Dynamics - Coal imports in 2024 reached 435 million tons, a 13.5% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from Australia and Mongolia. However, growth in imports may face challenges in 2025 due to various factors [2][29]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high dividend payouts and strong governance, as the coal market's supply-demand structure continues to improve. Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [2][29].