煤炭行业周报：成本支撑或将发力，煤价有望止跌企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and a "Hold" rating for several other companies including China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Huabei Mining [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to stabilize after a period of decline, supported by cost factors and increasing demand due to colder weather [21]. - The report highlights that while thermal coal prices have decreased, the daily consumption at power plants continues to rise, indicating a potential for price recovery [26]. - The report notes that the supply of coal has increased, but the demand remains strong, particularly with the onset of winter, which may lead to a tightening of coal inventories [21][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 13, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 804 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton week-on-week; the long-term contract price for December 2024 was 696 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year [26]. - The pithead prices for various regions showed declines, with Shanxi Datong at 670 RMB/ton, Ordos at 608 RMB/ton, and Yulin at 679 RMB/ton [26]. - Coal inventory at northern ports was reported at 27.95 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons week-on-week [38]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable for Shanxi at 1690 RMB/ton, while Australian coking coal decreased by 10 RMB/ton to 1570 RMB/ton [50]. - The coke price index was reported at 1580 RMB/ton, down 44 RMB/ton week-on-week, with the cost index at 1679 RMB/ton, indicating a widening gap between price and cost [53]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal production in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 28.264 million tons for the week ending December 8, an increase of 209,000 tons week-on-week [46]. - Daily average consumption for coastal provinces was reported at 2.087 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces consumed 4.182 million tons, up 331,000 tons week-on-week [38]. 4. Transportation and Logistics - The report notes a high-level decline in sea and land transportation costs, with a rebound in coal transport volume on the Daqin line [66]. - The report emphasizes the importance of transportation efficiency in maintaining coal supply amidst fluctuating prices [66].