年度策略报告姊妹篇：2025年电子行业风险排雷手册

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the capital market in 2025 will experience significant opportunities due to tail risk mitigation and monetary easing, leading to an uplift in valuations [2] - It emphasizes that the 2025 A-share market will balance large and small caps, with a preference for growth cycles [4] - The report serves as a "risk clearance manual" to proactively identify market misjudgments and forecast industry challenges [5][6] Summary by Sections 2025 Investment Strategy - The core logic revolves around "AI moving from cloud to edge" and "advanced breakthroughs" in integrated circuits (ICs) [15] - Edge AI is expected to evolve from virtual to practical applications, with smart glasses being a key product, and domestic brands are accelerating their development [15] - The report highlights the importance of domestic production capabilities in advanced processes and packaging technologies, aiming for a complete domestic supply chain [15] Key Assumptions and Stock Selection - The assumption for edge AI is that a new replacement cycle for consumer electronics will emerge in 2025, driven by demand recovery and AI innovations [16] - The assumption for advanced breakthroughs is that domestic production lines will see continuous capital expenditure (Capex) growth, leading to breakthroughs in technology and materials [16] Major Weaknesses - For edge AI, the report identifies potential weaknesses such as slower-than-expected progress in domestic AI model development due to restrictions on AI chip sales from overseas [18] - It also notes that consumer demand recovery may not meet expectations, impacting purchasing power for electronic products [18] - In terms of advanced breakthroughs, the report points out that the construction of domestic production lines may lag behind expectations due to changes in overseas trade policies [19] Operational Risks - The report discusses operational risks related to consumer electronics, particularly the potential for edge AI to catalyze product shipments, which may not meet expectations [22] - It also highlights the risk of a slowdown in demand for AI training servers, which could impact the supply chain and revenue growth in the AI computing sector [24] - Additionally, it addresses risks in semiconductor equipment investments, noting that domestic wafer fabs may face delays in expansion due to supply chain issues [26] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the semiconductor industry may not recover as quickly as anticipated, with potential downward pressure on wafer fab utilization rates and pricing [32] - It emphasizes the need to monitor global semiconductor sales data and the performance of electronic product sales to gauge market conditions [32]