煤炭月报：供给延续回升，非电需求边际改善

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply continues to recover, with marginal improvements in non-electric demand [3] - The report highlights a stable domestic supply outlook, driven by production recovery in Shanxi and high import levels due to price differentials [5][6] - The economic recovery and large-scale equipment updates are expected to support coal demand [6][7] Supply Side Summary - In November, domestic raw coal production reached 428 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3.9% [16] - Cumulative domestic raw coal production from January to November was 4.322 billion tons, up 1.2% year-on-year [16] - Coal imports in November totaled 54.98 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [19] - Total supply in November was 483 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.44% [5] Demand Side Summary - Total electricity generation in November was 749.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [21] - Thermal power generation in November was 517.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.48% [21] - Non-electric demand is showing signs of improvement, particularly in steel and cement sectors [6][39] Inventory and Price Summary - National coal inventory in November was 73 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.80% and a year-on-year increase of 8.96% [43] - Key power plants had coal inventories of 128 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.16% [50] - Prices for various coal types have shown a downward trend, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price down 10.83% year-on-year [54][60] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality dividend stocks such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [7] - Emphasize dual-fuel elasticity stocks like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Shenma Energy [7] - Long-term growth opportunities in companies like Guanghui Energy and Gansu Energy [7]