宏观研究：政策扩张到实体修复，信心定价更重要

Group 1: Economic Overview - The overall economy remained stable in November, with a slight fluctuation in consumption and fixed asset investment growth, while production growth showed a rebound, indicating a supply-demand gap widening[2] - The Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference signaled a shift towards a more accommodative policy, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand to stabilize growth[2] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - In November, retail sales growth was 3%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month and 2.3 percentage points lower than the consensus forecast of 5.3%[13] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to October was 3.3%, slightly below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.4%[19] - The sales of household appliances, furniture, and automobiles are expected to maintain high growth due to consumption promotion policies, with specific retail growth rates of 22.2%, 10.5%, and 6.6% respectively[15] Group 3: Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate in November was 5.4%, slightly above expectations and better than the five-year average of 5.3%[33] - The manufacturing sector drove the industrial growth, with a notable 7.4% increase in export delivery value year-on-year[35] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts, which could impact economic stability[5] - The market anticipates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with possible interest rate cuts following central bank meetings in December[4]