半导体2025展望：AI热潮将延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, with a focus on four main investment themes: Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductor Supply Chain Autonomy, High Dividend Defensive Strategy, and M&A Opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI boom, with significant growth in related sectors driven by increased investment in computing infrastructure [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor supply chain autonomy in China, driven by geopolitical risks and the need for supply chain security [8][9]. - High dividend yield companies, particularly in the telecommunications sector, are expected to attract conservative investors as long-term bond yields decline [17]. - M&A activities in the semiconductor sector are anticipated to increase, leading to high-quality consolidations that will enhance market competitiveness and profitability [21]. Summary by Sections Investment Theme 1: Artificial Intelligence - The report maintains a positive long-term growth outlook for the AI sector, with core beneficiaries expected to perform well due to substantial increases in computing infrastructure investments [1][3]. - Major cloud service providers are projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a forecasted growth of 42% in 2024 and an additional 18% in 2025, reaching $250 billion [1][3]. Investment Theme 2: Semiconductor Supply Chain Autonomy - The trend towards supply chain autonomy in China's semiconductor industry is expected to enhance domestic market share, driven by geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from the U.S. [8][9]. - The report notes that several Chinese semiconductor companies have been added to the U.S. entity list, which may impact their operations but also highlights the potential for domestic growth [9][10]. Investment Theme 3: High Dividend Defensive Strategy - Major Chinese telecom operators are highlighted as attractive investments due to their stable operations, strong free cash flow, and high dividend yields, with China Mobile at 6.86% and China Telecom at 5.93% [17]. - The report suggests that as long-term bond yields are expected to decline, investors may shift their focus towards high dividend yield companies as a risk mitigation strategy [17]. Investment Theme 4: M&A Opportunities - The report indicates a growing trend in M&A activities within the semiconductor sector, with a 41.46% increase in disclosed M&A events compared to the previous year [21]. - M&A activities are expected to help companies expand their customer base, enhance product offerings, and improve competitive positioning [21].