燃料电池重卡行业或将在2026-2027年迎来拐点

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that the fuel cell heavy-duty truck industry may reach an inflection point between 2026 and 2027, driven by cost competitiveness and infrastructure development [1] Core Views - Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are expected to achieve cost parity with diesel trucks by 2026, with a 75% reduction in fuel cell system costs over the next 5-10 years [1] - The key to achieving cost competitiveness lies in reducing hydrogen refueling costs and improving infrastructure, with government support playing a crucial role in the short term [1][2] - Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are projected to have a 10% lower total cost of ownership compared to diesel trucks by 2026, assuming hydrogen costs drop to 25 RMB/kg [1][2] Cost Analysis - The total cost of ownership for fuel cell heavy-duty trucks is expected to decrease from 745,000 RMB in 2023 to 509,000 RMB by 2026, driven by reductions in hydrogen costs and improvements in fuel efficiency [6][25] - By 2026, fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are projected to have a 10% lower total cost of ownership compared to diesel trucks, with upfront cost premiums being offset within 3 years [24][25] Hydrogen Production and Transportation - Grey hydrogen (produced from coal or natural gas) currently dominates the market due to its lower cost (13 RMB/kg) compared to green hydrogen (30-40 RMB/kg) [27][32] - Transportation costs for hydrogen could be significantly reduced by adopting Type III long-tube trailers, which could cut costs by 50% compared to Type I trailers [42][43] - Pipeline transportation of hydrogen could further reduce costs to 2.3 RMB/kg, but requires significant government planning and investment [44][47] Fuel Cell System Cost Reduction - The fuel cell system cost is expected to decrease by 75% in the medium to long term, from 1,500 RMB/kW to 390 RMB/kW, driven by technological advancements and economies of scale [56][68] - Key components such as bipolar plates, membrane electrodes, and catalysts are projected to see cost reductions of 58-81% over the next decade [67][68] Market Potential - Fuel cell heavy-duty trucks accounted for only 0.3% of the Chinese market in 2023, but with long-haul transportation making up half of the heavy-duty truck demand, there is significant potential for exponential growth [3][72] - The report anticipates that fuel cell heavy-duty trucks could achieve cost parity with diesel trucks by 2026, with infrastructure development being a critical factor for long-term competitiveness [74][75]