淡季量高价低持续，看好供需改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The industry is currently experiencing a low season with high passenger load factors but low ticket prices, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand structure that may lead to a profitability cycle [1][4] - In November, the three major airlines showed a total supply increase of 9.9% and a total passenger load factor of 83.1%, which is a 6.0 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] - The report highlights that the supply growth for domestic routes is slowing down, while international routes are recovering, which may help improve the domestic supply-demand balance [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The aviation industry is entering a potential profitability cycle due to improving supply-demand dynamics, despite current low ticket prices during the off-peak season [1][4] - The report notes that domestic economy class ticket prices have decreased by 14.8% since early November, which is a slight increase from the 12.7% decline observed earlier in the year [1] Airline Performance - The three major airlines reported a 9.7% increase in supply and a 19.1% increase in demand year-on-year in November, with an overall passenger load factor of 82.7%, up 6.5 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Domestic supply for the three major airlines increased by only 0.2%, while international supply surged by 42.4%, indicating a strategic shift towards international routes [2] Smaller Airlines - Smaller airlines are rapidly increasing their international capacity, with Spring Airlines showing a 113.5% increase in international supply compared to the previous year [3] - The report indicates that the overall passenger load factor for smaller airlines remains high, with Spring Airlines achieving a load factor of 84.9% for international routes, up 5.7 percentage points from 2019 [3] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of observing the Spring Festival travel data in 2025 and subsequent business travel data as key indicators for demand recovery [4] - The industry is expected to face a tight supply situation, with a focus on international routes helping to alleviate domestic supply pressures, which may lead to improved ticket pricing elasticity [4] Stock Recommendations - The report provides buy ratings for several airlines, including China National Aviation (753 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 6.20, 4.40, and 71.70 respectively [8][16]