互联网行业月报：10-11月电商合计同比增3.3%，期待政策持续释放利好

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - E-commerce sales in October and November showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, with expectations for continued policy support to boost the sector [1]. - November saw a decline of 2.7% in adjusted physical e-commerce sales, primarily due to the timing of promotional sales [1]. - The report highlights that the "old-for-new" subsidy program significantly boosted appliance sales by 22% in November, while furniture sales also accelerated to double-digit growth of 11% [1][10]. - The express delivery business volume increased by 15% year-on-year in November, driven by promotional activities and the integration of e-commerce with local agricultural products [13]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Platforms - Alibaba's Taotian is expected to see stable CMR growth due to the full quarter contribution from technology service fees and product penetration [2]. - Pinduoduo's GMV growth is anticipated to outpace the market, although the recent policy on commission rates may have a short-term impact [2]. - JD's growth in electrical categories is closely linked to national subsidy policies, which are expected to expand [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce revenue growth is outpacing GMV, indicating a shift in product structure that enhances commission rates [2]. Overseas Business Development - Alibaba's overseas business, "Taobao Overseas," is projected to exceed $20 billion in GMV for 2024, benefiting from targeted user services and global shipping initiatives [2]. - TEMU has opened to all local sellers in the U.S., and its Thailand site has successfully registered, while operations in Vietnam are temporarily halted for compliance [2]. Investment Implications - Current price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 are projected at 9.9x for Alibaba, 8.4x for JD, 7.1x for Pinduoduo, and 8.7x for Kuaishou [3]. - Revenue growth for e-commerce platforms is expected to range between 8-14% in 2025, with Alibaba's growth driven by GMV recovery and improved monetization rates [3]. Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation table for various companies, indicating "Buy" ratings for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD, and Kuaishou, with target prices significantly above current prices [4].