2025美国经济展望：开局乐观，渐趋谨慎

Economic Growth - The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, indicating a soft landing for the economy[1] - Trump's policies are projected to increase the average GDP growth rate by 0.2-0.3 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, but decrease it by 0.1-0.2 percentage points after 2027[1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly from 4.2% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, while real wages continue to increase[1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - PCE inflation is expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, with core PCE inflation decreasing from 2.7% to 2.3% in the same period[1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025, reducing the policy rate from 4.5%-4.75% to 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Trump's policies may introduce medium-term inflation uncertainty, with core PCE inflation projected to rise by 0.3-0.5 percentage points from 2025 to 2028[1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption growth is expected to slow from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, driven by a cooling labor market and weak consumer credit[1] - Corporate earnings growth is forecasted to increase from 9.6% in 2024 to 15% in 2025, while non-residential investment growth may decline from 3.7% to 3.5%[1] - The real estate market is projected to improve moderately, with home sales and inventory expected to grow by 5% and 10%, respectively, in 2025[1]