制冷剂行业深度报告（三）：蓄势双击，或迎主升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical products industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the refrigerant industry is expected to experience a significant upward trend in profits and valuations in 2025, driven by multiple catalysts such as profit release, accelerated trends, low inventory, and rational policy expectations [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Industry - The report is the third in a series focusing on the refrigerant industry, aiming to review the operational status of the industry in 2024 and provide a framework for future analysis [19]. 2. Review of 2024 - The refrigerant industry entered the first year of HFCs quota period in 2024, showing a trend of overall price recovery in Q1, structural differentiation in Q2 and Q3, and a comprehensive price increase in Q4 [6][24]. - The internal trade market outperformed the external trade market in the first three quarters, with a notable shift in Q4 where both markets experienced upward momentum [6][24]. 3. Current Status - The report highlights that the policy environment is stabilizing, with prices rising across the board and low inventory levels [6][24]. - The quota policy for 2025 has been established, leading to a more rational understanding of quota distribution and market dynamics [6][24]. 4. Future Outlook - Short-term: The refrigerant market is entering a phase of supply tightness, with significant production increases expected in the home air conditioning sector [7]. - Mid-term: 2024 is viewed as a transitional year for the refrigerant industry, with potential for recovery and consensus building [7]. - Long-term: The industry is expected to maintain a seller's market structure, with domestic leaders likely to gain global dominance as the market evolves [7][19]. 5. Price Trends and Predictions - The report provides detailed price trends for various refrigerants, indicating significant price increases for R32, R410a, R125, and R134a in Q4 2024, with R32 prices reaching approximately 42,000 CNY/ton [25][26][27][30].