2024年11月金融数据点评：金融数据的三条线索

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November 2024, new social financing (社融) was approximately 2.3 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion RMB, with the social financing stock growth rate remaining flat at 7.8%[6] - Local government debt resolution led to an increase in government bond financing by nearly 160 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing 0.03 percentage points to the social financing growth rate[6] - Corporate bond financing increased by over 100 billion RMB year-on-year, supporting social financing growth by 0.03 percentage points, aided by a rapid decline in market interest rates[6] Group 2: Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans in November 2024 were about 580 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 510 billion RMB, with the loan stock growth rate declining by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7%[13] - Residential medium- and long-term loans increased by 66.9 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing 0.02 percentage points to the loan stock growth rate, supported by recovering real estate sales[13] - Corporate medium- and long-term loans decreased by nearly 240 billion RMB year-on-year, dragging down the loan stock growth rate by approximately 0.12 percentage points[14] Group 3: Monetary Indicators - M1 growth rate rebounded by 2.4 percentage points to -3.7% in November 2024, supported by recovering real estate sales and local government debt repayments[19] - M2 growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1%, influenced by a decline in loan growth and fluctuations in the stock market[19] - The "M1-M2 growth rate difference" narrowed by 2.8 percentage points to -10.8%, indicating improvements in the circulation of funds in the real economy[20]