纺服及时尚消费行业2025年度投资策略：行到水穷处，坐看云起时

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Views 2024 Industry Review - Weak domestic demand was the dominant factor affecting the performance of domestic brands, leading to pressure on the earnings of listed companies, including low-valuation/high-dividend theme leaders [2] - The rapid rise in gold prices significantly weakened the prosperity of the gold and jewelry industry, with Laopu Gold being one of the few companies in the sector to achieve growth against the trend [2] - The export manufacturing sector regained growth momentum in 2024 as overseas brands completed their inventory destocking cycle, with Vietnam's export data and the growth rates of Taiwanese footwear and apparel companies showing significant improvement [2] 2025 Investment Strategy for Domestic Brands - The recovery elasticity of domestic consumption is expected, driven by policy support, with a focus on the breadth and intensity of policy measures [2] - The report is optimistic about the certainty and continuity of future consumption stimulus policies, with a potential valuation recovery in the sector if policies are implemented as expected [2] - Small-cap stocks performed better after September 2024, but the report predicts that leading brands with solid fundamentals will show better stock price elasticity as domestic demand gradually recovers, likely around mid-2025 [2] 2025 Investment Strategy for Export Manufacturing - The report is optimistic about the resilience of leading companies and advises paying attention to U.S. tariff policies [2] - Historical data shows that leading companies did not experience a significant decline in their export share to the U.S./Americas during Trump's first term, and domestic companies accelerated the relocation of their supply chains to Southeast Asia to avoid tariff impacts [2] - The report expects that the market sentiment may be affected in the short term if Trump's tariff policies are implemented in 2025, but the impact is likely to be smaller than the previous round [2] Investment Recommendations and Targets Domestic Brands - Four key areas are recommended: 1) sectors directly benefiting from policy support, such as home textiles and multi-child concept beneficiaries; 2) outdoor and functional sportswear as a medium-to-long-term allocation; 3) medical aesthetics/cosmetics as an offensive sector; 4) low-valuation, high-dividend themes [3] - Specific companies recommended include Luolai Lifestyle, Fuanna, Mercury Home Textile, Semir, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Bosideng, and others [3] Export Manufacturing - The report recommends leading companies with high overseas production capacity, strong global competitiveness in niche markets, and clear capacity expansion plans, such as Shenzhou International, Weixing Shares, and Huali Group [3] Industry Performance and Trends Domestic Brands - Weak demand in 2024 significantly impacted the overall performance of listed companies, with the performance of low-valuation/high-dividend theme leaders also under pressure [25] - The rapid rise in gold prices in 2024, with a 29% increase year-to-date, negatively affected the gold and jewelry industry, leading to a decline in same-store sales for major players like Chow Tai Fook [44] - Industry valuations showed a turning point in September 2024, driven by policy expectations, with valuations for the textile and apparel sector stabilizing after a period of decline [54] Export Manufacturing - The export manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in 2024, with Vietnam's footwear and textile exports turning positive and Taiwanese footwear and apparel companies experiencing improved revenue growth [56] - Leading companies like Huali Group and Shenzhou International showed divergent performance, with Huali Group outperforming due to its higher overseas production capacity and better future earnings expectations [63] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The report highlights the significant impact of the "trade-in" policy on domestic consumption, particularly in the home textile sector, with some regions expanding the policy to include home textiles [74] - The report expects further expansion of consumption stimulus policies in 2025, with potential extensions to service consumption and other areas, which could drive sustainable consumption recovery [83] - The report predicts that the recovery of domestic brand companies' earnings will likely occur in the second half of 2025, with valuation recovery expected to precede earnings improvement [87] Key Investment Themes Outdoor and Functional Sportswear - The outdoor and functional sportswear sector is expected to perform well in the long term, driven by favorable competitive dynamics, low penetration rates, and clear consumption upgrade trends [95] - Companies like Anta Sports have shown strong growth in niche categories such as outdoor and skiing, outperforming their main brands [96] Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics - The medical aesthetics and cosmetics sector is seen as an offensive play, with valuation upside potential as the sector's valuation remains below historical averages [99] - The report notes that domestic brands have made significant progress in product development, efficacy, and marketing, which could lead to increased market share in the medium term [106] Export Manufacturing and Tariff Risks - The report advises caution regarding potential U.S. tariff policies under a Trump administration but remains optimistic about the resilience of leading export manufacturers due to their overseas production capacity and ability to mitigate tariff risks [116] - The report expects that the impact of tariff policies on the sector's valuation will be less severe than in the previous round, given the market's more prepared expectations [121]