2024年11月增长数据解读：理性看待经济月度波动

Economic Growth Indicators - In November 2024, China's monthly GDP growth rate is estimated at 5.5%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from October, but still above the annual target of around 5%[7] - The industrial production index in November increased by 5.4% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, the highest level since June 2024[9] - The service sector production index grew by 6.1% year-on-year, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but remains the second highest this year[6] Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector, particularly equipment manufacturing, is a key driver, with manufacturing industrial value added increasing by 6.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Industrial export delivery value rose by 7.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, outpacing the nominal growth rate of industrial value added[12] - The industrial sales rate was 97.1%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but showing improvement compared to the third quarter[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in November grew by 2.4% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, with manufacturing investment at 9.3% and infrastructure investment at 9.7%[15] - Private investment showed a decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -0.4% for the first 11 months of 2024, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[20] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in November fell by 11.6% year-on-year, but the decline was narrowed by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some positive signals[22] - The sales area of commercial housing in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth since May 2023[25] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in November grew by 3.0% year-on-year, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with retail sales of goods declining by 2.2 percentage points[30] - The recovery in consumer spending is expected in December due to the end of the "old-for-new" policy and the early arrival of the Spring Festival[31]