山西证券：研究早观点-20241218

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a more systematic, proactive, and forward-looking policy approach in response to the economic challenges faced in 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and enhancing consumer confidence [4][5][6] - The report highlights the importance of a unified leadership from the central government as a fundamental guarantee for economic work, ensuring a balance between market dynamics and government intervention [5] - The meeting outlined the need to address difficulties while maintaining confidence, aiming for stable economic growth, employment, and overall price stability [5][6] Group 2 - The report indicates that macroeconomic policies will be more proactive, with an emphasis on timely and effective implementation, including a potential increase in the fiscal deficit rate to 3.5-4% and the issuance of long-term special bonds [16][17] - It discusses the necessity of a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity to align with economic growth and price stability targets [16][17] - The report stresses the importance of boosting domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, through various initiatives aimed at increasing income and reducing burdens on low-income groups [10][11] Group 3 - The report outlines a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with measures to revitalize housing demand and control new land supply [10][11] - It emphasizes the role of technological innovation in developing a modern industrial system, advocating for significant investment in research and development [11][14] - The report calls for reforms to address deep-seated obstacles to development, including enhancing the regulatory environment and promoting healthy growth in the platform economy [14]