商贸零售：零售重估掘金手册：三条逻辑与路径

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail sector [1]. Core Insights - Since November, the Shenwan retail sector has shown significant excess returns, primarily benefiting from the revaluation of retail assets [2]. - The reset value of retail stocks has been repeatedly traded over the past decade, indicating that the cost to reset the underlying assets exceeds their market value [2]. - Currently, the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio of retail assets is at a low level, suggesting substantial revaluation potential as the reset costs are expected to be significantly higher than historical costs [2][11]. - The retail revaluation trend began after September 23, 2024, when Miniso took a catalytic role in revaluing Yonghui Supermarket, leading to a broader revaluation trend across the sector [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Retail Sector Revaluation Potential - The retail sector exhibits significant revaluation potential due to low PB ratios and historical cost accounting [11][12]. 2. Department Store Industry Revaluation - The department store industry is mature, with existing projects having high reset costs and potential for transformation [26]. - The sales scale of the department store industry in China has remained stable around 1 trillion yuan over the past decade, indicating a need for transformation to capture new growth [27][30]. 3. Supermarket Industry - The report suggests focusing on new business models and transformation opportunities that could lead to revaluation in the supermarket sector [64]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Companies with PB ratios less than or equal to 1, such as Dashang Group and Wushang Group, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2][18]. - Companies with significant net cash on hand and low market capitalization, like Gaoxin Retail and Bailian Group, are also recommended [2][18]. - Companies undergoing state-owned enterprise reforms, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store, are identified as having potential catalysts for growth [3][18].