宏观大类日报：国民经济延续回升，政策效果仍待传导

Economic Overview - The national economy continues to recover, but the effects of policies are still pending transmission[2] - As of November, the national economy has shown a sustained recovery since September, but there are still issues with insufficient demand and operational difficulties for enterprises[8] Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference on December 12 emphasized proactive fiscal policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special bonds, confirming a trend of expanding government credit cycles for the next year[2] - The A-share market showed mixed performance on December 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the ChiNext Index experienced a larger drop, indicating cautious market sentiment[2] Commodity Futures Strategy - For commodity futures, it is recommended to go long on precious metals and the black sector, while maintaining a neutral stance on other commodities[2] - The black sector is particularly sensitive to policy sentiment and is expected to receive short-term support[2] Interest Rate and Inflation Outlook - As of December 13, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 96.3%[2] - The U.S. November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.6%, aligning with market expectations[2] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to buy index futures for hedging purposes[2] - Focus on sectors that benefit from government policies aimed at boosting investment in infrastructure and social welfare[8]