东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241218

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The direct contribution of the real estate industry to the economy is expected to turn positive, with a projected increase of approximately 0.2 percentage points in Q4 compared to Q3 [1][16] - The real estate sector's value added has historically accounted for about 5.4% of GDP over the past four quarters, indicating its significant role in economic growth [1][16] - The improvement in the real estate sector is expected to indirectly boost the economy through its impact on upstream and downstream production [1][16] Group 2: Fixed Income - The basic economic recovery is underway, with November's industrial value added increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, while retail sales growth decreased to 3.0% [2][17] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.3% in the first eleven months of 2024, with manufacturing investment at 9.3% and real estate investment declining by 10.4% [2][17] - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has fallen below 2%, reflecting expectations of a "moderately loose monetary policy" [2][17] Group 3: Retail Sector - The retail sector has shown significant excess returns since November, primarily due to asset revaluation [5][25] - Companies with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of less than 1, such as Dazhong Co., Wushang Group, and Youa Group, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][25] - The overall low valuation of retail assets suggests substantial revaluation potential, especially as historical costs are significantly lower than current replacement costs [5][25] Group 4: Real Estate Industry - The real estate market in China is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with a recommendation for companies like China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [6][25] - The recovery in the second-hand housing market is expected to outpace that of new homes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of accelerating policies related to urban village renovations and the transformation of dilapidated housing to stabilize the real estate market [6][25]