商贸零售行业： 扩大内需激发消费市场活力，看好创新消费和服务型消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][33]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand to stimulate consumer market vitality, with a focus on innovative and service-oriented consumption [8][15]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the necessity of boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, reflecting a strong commitment to enhancing domestic demand [8]. - The report identifies "first-release economy" as a key driver for offline retail channels and top consumer brands, suggesting that new product launches and promotional events can significantly enhance brand visibility and market impact [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail industry comprises 93 companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 941.78 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.98% increase [4][5]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry stands at 75.45 [7]. Consumer Trends - The report anticipates that innovative consumption and service-oriented consumption will be the main growth drivers, particularly in areas such as digital consumption, green consumption, and health-oriented services [8][14]. - The service consumption sector is expected to focus on basic livelihood needs and upgraded cultural demands, with significant growth potential in areas like elderly care and tourism [14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the consumer market remains weak, but the expansion of domestic demand policies is likely to boost consumer confidence and market activity [15]. - Key sectors expected to benefit include trendy toys, beauty care, medical aesthetics, gold and jewelry, and tourism [15]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for brands with strong market presence and flexible operations [17]. - Notable companies include: - Proya: EPS forecast of 3.97 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 23 [17]. - Betaini: EPS forecast of 1.74 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 28 [17]. - Aimeike: EPS forecast of 8.29 yuan for 2024, with a PE of 25 [17].