宏观大类日报：欧美12月制造业PMI初值低于预期

Group 1: Market Analysis - December manufacturing PMI in the US and Europe fell below expectations, indicating ongoing economic challenges[1] - The central economic work conference in China emphasized increasing fiscal deficit and issuing special bonds to stimulate the economy, confirming an expansionary credit cycle for next year[1] - The S&P Global data showed Eurozone's December manufacturing PMI at 45.2, slightly below the expected 45.3, while the US manufacturing PMI was at 48.3, below the expected 49.8, highlighting a divergence in economic recovery[1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Commodity futures strategy suggests buying on dips for precious metals and black metals, while maintaining a neutral stance on other sectors[1] - Stock index futures are recommended for buy hedging, reflecting a cautious but optimistic market outlook[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 96.3%, indicating strong market expectations for easing monetary policy[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate has risen, with non-farm payrolls showing modest growth, reflecting a mixed labor market[1] - China's central bank's recent gold purchases have positively impacted gold prices, despite challenges in the Fed's rate cut trajectory[1] - Geopolitical risks and potential global economic downturns pose threats to risk assets, necessitating careful monitoring[1]