建材行业周专题2024W48：超常规逆周期调节定调，地产链复苏可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials sector [10]. Core Insights - The policy direction has become clearer, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate chain. The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting deep interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and fiscal expansion as unconventional measures. The Central Economic Work Conference on December 15 reiterated the commitment to stabilize the real estate market and promote demand [5][21]. - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, while glass inventory has seen a slight increase. The rolling transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17% year-on-year, and the second-hand housing transaction area rose by 50% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report recommends leading companies in the existing supply chain, highlighting that demand for building materials is expected to rise in 2025, with a focus on companies like Three Trees, Beixin Building Materials, and Huaxin Cement [8][10]. Summary by Sections Basic Review - Cement: The national cement shipment rate is approximately 45%, down about 2 percentage points month-on-month. The average national cement price decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [6][27]. - Glass: The average price of float glass is stable, with slight adjustments in some regions. The total inventory in monitored provinces increased by 16,000 weight boxes, with a production rate of 98.70% [7][47]. Policy Direction - The report emphasizes the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic demand. It highlights the importance of implementing reforms in urban villages and dilapidated housing [5][21]. Market Data - Cement prices have shown a month-on-month decline, with the national average price at 428.06 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97 yuan/ton month-on-month but an increase of 41.45 yuan/ton year-on-year [27]. - The average price of glass is 79.85 yuan/weight box, down 0.33 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 26.24 yuan/weight box year-on-year [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the existing supply chain, such as Three Trees and Huaxin Cement, and highlights the potential for growth in industrial coatings and overseas markets [8][10].