美国雅保：资本开支收敛，业绩边际改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Albemarle, suggesting investors pay attention to the stock [3][7]. Core Views - Albemarle remains a leader in global lithium salts and bromine specialty chemicals, facing pressure on its 2024 performance due to high-priced inventory, falling lithium prices, restructuring, and asset write-off expenses. However, with the digestion of high-priced inventory and a significant reduction in capital expenditures in 2025, the company's performance is expected to improve [3][4]. - The company has strong lithium resource advantages, including projects in the Atacama salt flat and other high-quality lithium resource mining rights, which are expected to drive growth in lithium salt sales [3][4]. - The issuance of preferred shares raised approximately $2.2 billion, which will enhance cash flow and support future operations [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenues of$9.617 billion, with a projected decline of 42.8% to $5.499 billion in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 and 2026 [5][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to drop significantly from$2.766 billion in 2023 to $1.106 billion in 2024, before recovering to$1.696 billion by 2026 [5][8]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to Albemarle's common shareholders is forecasted to be -$0.11 billion in 2024, with a return to profitability in 2025 and 2026 [5][8]. Market Position - Albemarle's lithium salt sales for 2022 and 2023 were 119,000 and 160,000 tons LCE, respectively, with a guidance of 20-25% growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The company has integrated lithium extraction capabilities in Chile and the U.S., with plans to ramp up production in various locations, which will support future sales growth [3][4].