金属行业周报：基本面受淡季影响，国内宏观环境向好

Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [3] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [3] Core Views - The macro policy trend is favorable, but the steel industry may face pressure due to seasonal factors, with short-term steel prices expected to fluctuate [4][5] - Copper supply is tight, supporting copper prices; however, short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to seasonal demand [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to limited demand during the seasonal consumption lull [4][5] - Lithium prices may decline in the short term due to weakening demand in December, a traditional off-season [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - In November, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [22] - The national energy work conference emphasized promoting wind and solar energy development by 2025 [22] - Peru's copper production fell by 1.4% in October due to reduced output from major mines [22] - Global electric vehicle sales increased by 32.3% year-on-year in November [22] - China's automobile production and sales reached historical highs in November, with production at 3.437 million units and sales at 3.316 million units [22] Industry Data Steel - The steel industry is entering a traditional off-season, with overall inventory continuing to decline [25] - As of December 13, the total steel inventory was 11.6127 million tons, down 1.61% from December 6 [35] - The average gross profit for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates increased compared to the previous week [46] Copper - Copper smelting output is expected to recover in December as maintenance peaks end, but inventory has risen due to seasonal demand [48] - As of December 13, LME copper prices were $9,000 per ton, with SHFE copper prices at ¥74,800 per ton [53] Aluminum - High alumina prices have led to production cuts in some aluminum plants; short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [56][58] - As of December 13, LME aluminum prices were $2,600 per ton, while SHFE aluminum prices were ¥20,300 per ton [59] Lithium - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell to ¥77,400 per ton, down 1.02% from December 6 [67] - The price of lithium concentrate (6%-6.5%) imported averaged $818 per ton, down 2.04% from the previous week [67]