煤炭月度供需数据点评：11月供给持续回升，制造业投资延续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of raw coal has shown a slight increase compared to the same period in 2023, with a cumulative production of 4.322 billion tons from January to November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.20% [14] - Manufacturing investment continues to grow significantly, with fixed asset investment increasing by 3.3% year-on-year from January to November 2024, while downstream demand remains under pressure [17] - The import volume of coal has continued to grow, reaching 49.034 million tons from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [24] - Prices for thermal coal and coking coal are generally weak, with the average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal in November at 845 yuan/ton, down 10.64% year-on-year [30] Supply Side Summary - From January to November 2024, raw coal supply has slightly increased compared to the same period in 2023, with a total production of 4.322 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.20% [14] - The production in November 2024 was 428 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.80% [14] Demand Side Summary - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.30% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [17] - The cumulative growth rate for thermal power from January to November 2024 is 1.90%, down 3.80 percentage points from the previous year [22] - Downstream demand is under pressure, with significant declines in the growth rates of coke, pig iron, and cement production [22] Import Summary - Coal imports have continued to grow, with a cumulative import volume of 49.034 million tons from January to November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [24] - In November 2024, the import volume was 5.498 million tons, up 26.37% year-on-year [24] Price and Profit Performance Summary - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are under pressure, with the average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal at 845 yuan/ton in November, down 10.64% year-on-year [30] - The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,659 yuan/ton in November, down 33.71% year-on-year [30] Commentary and Investment Suggestions - November data aligns with expectations, and there is potential for demand improvement in the future [36] - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend stocks, with specific recommendations for companies such as Guanghui Energy and China Shenhua [37]