非银行业周报：个人养老金制度全面实施，加快引导长线资金入市

Investment Ratings - Key companies investment ratings include: China Pacific Insurance (Buy), Ping An Insurance (Overweight), New China Life Insurance (Overweight), China Life Insurance (Overweight), Jiangsu Jinzheng (Overweight), Dongfang Caifu (Overweight), CITIC Securities (Overweight), Ruida Futures (Overweight), Zheshang Securities (Overweight), and Guolian Securities (Overweight) [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the personal pension system nationwide is expected to significantly boost long-term capital inflows into the market, with an estimated growth of personal pension funds from approximately 30 billion RMB in 2023 to 141.3 billion RMB by 2028, representing a CAGR of 38% [6][41] - The insurance sector is currently facing pressure from declining long-term interest rates, but positive fiscal and monetary policy signals are anticipated to enhance equity investment performance [6] - The report suggests that the insurance sector may see a recovery in valuation due to regulatory advancements in optimizing liability costs, macroeconomic stabilization, and increased long-term bond supply [6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector experienced a decline of 2.65% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.65 percentage points [5] - The valuation of the insurance sector has adjusted due to the rapid decline in long-term interest rates [5] - The personal pension system's expansion is expected to alleviate previous operational challenges and enhance product variety, thereby increasing the attractiveness of insurance products [6] Securities Sector - The securities sector saw a decrease of 2.14% this week, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.13 percentage points, with the sector's PB valuation dropping to 1.60 times [5] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the stock market and enhancing capital market reforms, which are expected to improve market confidence and trading activity [7] - The report highlights two main stock selection strategies: focusing on companies with expansion opportunities in valuation and those with long-term profit growth potential [7] Key Company Announcements & Industry News - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, along with other departments, issued a notice on the nationwide implementation of the personal pension system, effective December 15, 2024 [6][41] - China Life Insurance reported a cumulative original insurance premium income of approximately 644.3 billion RMB from January 1 to November 30, 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [37] - Ping An Insurance's original insurance premium income for the same period was approximately 292.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [39]