2025年宏观经济及大类资产展望

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 4.5%[13] - Current economic issues include the divergence between financial leverage and economic growth, particularly in the real estate and manufacturing sectors[27][39] Policy and Market Dynamics - Local government infrastructure spending currently accounts for 77% of cash inflows, indicating a significant reliance on this for debt management[10][61] - The first-hand housing market is clearing, while the second-hand market remains stagnant, affecting consumer confidence and spending[11][46] Investment Recommendations - Interest rate bonds are expected to continue their downward trend, with a target yield of 1.5% for 10-year government bonds[14][84] - The equity market should focus on alpha opportunities rather than a simplistic bull market mentality[14][88] - Commodity markets, particularly rebar steel and crude oil, present significant recovery potential[14][85] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, global economic downturns, and macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations[19][89] - High leverage in industrial enterprises poses a risk, as loan growth outpaces profit growth, potentially impacting manufacturing investments[12][52]