周报：加码的政策抬升经济回升曲线

Economic Indicators - November CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of +0.2%, down from October's -0.1 percentage points, and below market expectations of +0.5%[3] - November PPI decreased by -2.5% year-on-year, a decline of +0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - The core CPI for November was +0.3%, slightly up from October's +0.1 percentage points, indicating a mild recovery in consumer prices excluding food and energy[3] Financial Data - In November, the total social financing increased by 2.34 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 1.40 trillion yuan and below market expectations[6] - New RMB loans in November were 5,800 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,100 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline[8] - M2 growth rate was +7.1%, down from +7.5% in October, weaker than the market expectation of +7.4%[8] Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," indicating a strong signal for policy easing[16] - The government plans to increase the fiscal deficit ratio, which is currently set at 3%, and issue special bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan to support economic growth[16] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming December meeting, with a 96.4% probability according to CME FEDwatch data[24]