平安固收：2025年信用策略：供需双扩，节奏错位

Market Overview - In 2024, credit bonds outperformed interest rate bonds, with credit spreads compressing, particularly in lower-rated bonds[4] - The overall strategy for credit bonds in 2025 indicates an increase in both supply and demand, but with a mismatch in timing[4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, demand for credit bonds is expected to expand faster than supply, suggesting a potential for price recovery in mid to high-grade long-term bonds[4] - In the second half, supply may outpace demand, making lower-rated short-term bonds more favorable[4] Sector Strategies - Urban Investment Bonds: Focus on low-grade long-term alpha opportunities, particularly in key debt restructuring regions, as new policies indicate continued support for debt restructuring[4] - Industrial Bonds: Emphasize opportunities in state-owned real estate, construction, and leasing bonds, benefiting from debt restructuring policies that reduce credit risk[4] - Financial Bonds: Monitor the decline in supply pressure for perpetual bonds and structural opportunities arising from bank mergers and extensions of perpetual bonds[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility of state-owned enterprises no longer prioritizing bond repayments, unexpected monetary policy changes, and significant loosening of urban investment financing policies[5]