2024年11月美国零售数据点评：如何理解11月偏弱的美国核心消费数据？

Retail Data Overview - November retail sales increased by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.5%[1] - Core retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) grew by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%[2] Market Reaction - Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.61%, 0.39%, and 0.32% respectively following the retail data release[3] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.40%, while the 2-year yield remained unchanged at 4.25%[3] Key Drivers of Retail Performance - Auto sales surged by 2.6% month-on-month, driven by year-end discounts and tariff threats on imports from Mexico and Canada[4][11] - Non-store retail sales (e-commerce) grew by 1.8% month-on-month, reflecting a shift towards online shopping during Black Friday[4][12] - Grocery store sales declined by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating weaker in-store consumer spending[4][12] Consumer Behavior and Inflation Outlook - Weak core retail data suggests market overestimation of future U.S. inflation risks, supporting faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts[4][13] - Consumers favored cost-effective online shopping during Black Friday, with e-commerce sales up 14.6% year-on-year[12] Fed Policy Implications - Market expects a 95.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with further cuts anticipated in 2025[13]