基础化工行业周报：山东化工园区扩区调整加速，原油、天然气价格上涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" as of December 17, 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2024, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2][5]. - The report highlights the arrival of a pivotal moment for synthetic biology, driven by the transition in energy structure, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [2][5]. - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is anticipated to enter a high prosperity cycle, with the supply of third-generation refrigerants entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [2][5]. - The electronic specialty gases sector is identified as a core component of the domestic industrial chain, with significant opportunities for domestic substitution due to rapid upgrades in downstream industries [5][10]. Industry Performance Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th this week, with a slight decline of -0.09%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27 percentage points [2][28]. - The top-performing segments within the chemical industry included civil explosives (+1.89%) and other plastic products (+1.74%) [28][39]. Supply-Side Dynamics - The report notes that 139 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected this week, with an increase in maintenance activities [11][28]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with major players like Wanhua Chemical and BASF controlling over 90% of the global capacity, indicating a favorable supply structure moving forward [10][11]. Price Trends - Significant price increases were observed in sulfur (+13.97%), NYMEX natural gas (+6.14%), and WTI crude oil (+4.38%) [11]. - The report anticipates a rebound in potash fertilizer prices due to supply reductions and increased demand from farmers [7][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in synthetic biology such as Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio, as well as companies in the refrigerant sector like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology [2][5][7]. - In the electronic specialty gases market, companies like Jinhong Gas, Huat Gas, and China Shipbuilding Specialty Gas are highlighted for their potential [5][10].