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电子行业2025年投资展望：关注硬件创新
Dongxing Securities·2024-12-18 06:27

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronic industry, suggesting it will outperform the CSI 300 index in 2024 [1][17]. Core Insights - The electronic industry index (CITIC) increased by 17.39% from the beginning of 2024 to December 6, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 14.30% [1][17]. - The report highlights a new development phase for the electronic industry driven by hardware innovation and the AI wave, emphasizing the importance of marginal changes in the industry [1][17]. - The report identifies three key areas for investment: AI glasses, high-speed copper connections, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Recovery and AI Influence - The electronic sector is benefiting from industry recovery and AI-driven growth, with the electronic index outperforming the CSI 300 index [1][17]. - Fund holdings in the electronic sector decreased to 534.409 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing 5.76% of the circulating market value, down from 8.45% in Q2 2024 [1][25][28]. AI Glasses - AI glasses are highlighted as a key wearable device with portability and interactivity, expected to become a primary platform for AI applications [1][39]. - The market for AI+AR smart glasses is projected to reach a penetration rate of 70% by 2035, with global sales expected to hit 1.4 billion units [1][46]. High-Speed Copper Connections - High-speed copper cables (DAC) are noted for their cost-effectiveness and low power consumption, essential for high-speed interconnects in data centers [2][67]. - Global shipments of high-speed copper cables are expected to reach 20 million units by the end of 2027, with annual revenue exceeding 1.2 billion USD [2][70]. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) - The rise of AI models has created a significant demand for HBM, which is expected to contribute 10% of total DRAM output by 2025, doubling from 2024 [3][75]. - The HBM market is projected to grow to 7.95 billion USD by 2029, driven by high average prices and increasing demand [3][75].