公用事业：坚持“长期主义”长持价值，关注能源转型卡口环节

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the public utility and environmental protection industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The public utility and environmental protection sectors have underperformed the market, with significant influence from market style changes. As of November 28, 2024, the public utility and environmental sectors lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 5.21% and 6.43%, respectively [3][33]. - The construction of a new power system remains the largest industrial trend, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions among state-owned enterprises and local government debt management as potential investment opportunities [3][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "long-termism" in holding assets like hydropower and nuclear power, which are seen as stable investments [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The public utility and environmental sectors have seen a year-to-date increase of 7.65% and 6.43%, respectively, ranking them in the middle of 31 Shenwan industry classifications [33][40]. - The market style has significantly influenced the performance of these sectors, with a notable shift in investment preferences observed after September 27, 2024 [3][40]. 2. Public Utilities - The report predicts a further divergence in performance within the thermal power sector, favoring high-quality regional power plants with stable profitability and potential valuation increases [3][32]. - The fundamentals of renewable energy generation are expected to bottom out, with a focus on electricity pricing policies and national subsidy repayments [3][32]. - Hydropower and nuclear power are highlighted for their stable fundamentals and "bond-like" asset characteristics, suggesting a strategic approach to asset pricing based on macroeconomic conditions [3][32]. 3. Gas Industry - The gas sector is entering a "2.0 era," with a focus on price differentials and consumption growth. The report anticipates a 6%-8% annual growth in consumption before 2030 [3][32]. - Recommendations include companies in the city gas sector such as China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy, as well as integrated industry leaders like New Hope Energy [3][32]. 4. Mergers and Acquisitions - The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions among state-owned enterprises as a key theme for the public utility sector leading up to 2025 [3][32]. - The introduction of debt management policies is expected to alleviate pressure on accounts receivable in the environmental sector, with specific recommendations for companies like Hongcheng Environment and Huanlan Environment [3][32].