2025年海外经济展望：动荡伊始

U.S. Economy under Trump's Policies - Trump's "tax cuts + tariffs" policy is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. GDP growth in 2025, with tax cuts potentially contributing up to 0.6 percentage points and tariffs/immigration policies dragging growth by up to 0.6 percentage points[2] - U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow to around 2% in 2025, with the inventory cycle likely transitioning from restocking to destocking in the second half of the year[2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates 3 times in 2025, maintaining a "moderately restrictive" stance, with the federal funds rate likely ending the year between 3.5-3.75%[2] Eurozone and Japan Economic Outlook - Eurozone GDP growth is forecast to recover from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025, with the ECB potentially cutting rates by 100 basis points[2] - Japan's real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 1.1% in 2025, with the Bank of Japan expected to hike rates only twice due to trade and financial market risks[2] - Trump's tariff policies could weaken Eurozone GDP growth by 0.11 percentage points, particularly impacting exports to the U.S.[2] Global Geopolitical and Trade Shifts - Global political shifts toward populism and nationalism are expected to increase policy uncertainty, potentially benefiting safe-haven assets like gold[2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, are likely to persist in 2025, with uncertain outcomes under Trump's foreign policy[2] - Global supply chain restructuring, driven by U.S.-China trade tensions, is creating new investment opportunities in emerging markets like Mexico and ASEAN countries[2] Asset Class Outlook - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are expected to peak above 4% in Q1 2025 before moderating to 3.5-4% in the latter half of the year[5] - Gold prices may face short-term pressure but are expected to rise over the year due to global safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends[5] - Crude oil prices are forecast to average $65-70 per barrel in 2025, down from $75-80 in 2024, amid demand and supply concerns[5]