国君宏观|稳增长举措仍不能松劲

Economic Indicators - Industrial added value in November increased by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 5.3% in the previous month, indicating strong production possibly driven by export demand[1] - Fixed asset investment in November grew by 3.4% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, but showed seasonal strength[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment showed weaker seasonal performance, while investments in textiles, automobiles, and general equipment strengthened, aligning with industrial added value trends[1] - Real estate investment saw a reduced year-on-year decline, supported by policies like lower mortgage rates, although new construction and completion rates still declined compared to the previous month[1] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in November did not surpass the nominal growth rate established since 2021, with significant increases in home appliances (22.2%) and automobiles (6.6%) due to trade-in policies[2] - The cosmetics sector experienced a sharp decline of 26.4%, reflecting consumption shifts caused by the timing of the Double Eleven shopping festival[2] Future Outlook - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 is expected to exceed 5%, driven by high growth rates in industrial and service sectors, indicating a potential to meet the annual economic target of around 5%[2] - The recovery of demand and moderate price increases will depend on the effectiveness of incremental policy measures[3] Risks - There are risks associated with the recovery of internal economic momentum being weaker than expected and potential escalation in US-China trade tensions[4]