2025年钢铁行业年度策略：供需结构持续优化，盈利有望触底回暖

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it suggests a cautious outlook for 2025 due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and potential price fluctuations. Core Insights - The supply side remains robust while demand shows signs of weakness, particularly influenced by the real estate sector. Steel production is expected to decrease slightly in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4% [3][14]. - The steel industry is anticipated to face oversupply issues in 2025, leading to price stability around 3000-4000 RMB per ton [3][71]. - Profitability is expected to hit a low in Q3 2024, with a potential recovery in 2025 as the industry adjusts to market conditions [3][4]. - Historical comparisons suggest a cautious approach, with potential for price recovery in 2025 under favorable monetary conditions, despite challenges such as export tariffs [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains ample, with daily iron output averaging 2.32 million tons in 2024, a 4.6% year-on-year decrease [3][8]. - Steel consumption in 2024 is projected to decline slightly, with total apparent consumption at 880 million tons, down 2% year-on-year [3][22]. - The real estate sector is a significant drag on demand, while infrastructure, automotive, shipbuilding, and manufacturing sectors provide some support [3][29]. Price Trends - Steel prices are expected to exhibit a downward trend in 2024, with a forecasted range of 3000-4000 RMB per ton [3][4]. - The report indicates that while prices may stabilize in 2025, they will remain sensitive to changes in demand and production costs [3][71]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies that are transitioning to higher-quality products and those benefiting from growth in specific downstream sectors [4]. - Key companies to watch include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, which are expected to perform well amid changing market dynamics [4].