2025年度展望（八）之大类资产配置策略（下）：顺势而为，见“风”使舵

Valuation Insights - A-share major indices have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio above the 90th percentile, indicating high valuations, but there is significant internal differentiation among sectors[1] - Industries like steel, building materials, commerce, automotive, computing, electronics, and real estate have shown sustained valuation increases, while sectors such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture, food and beverage, and social services remain undervalued[1] Funding Sources and Market Dynamics - The influence of overseas incremental funds on the domestic market is expected to weaken due to divergent global liquidity conditions and a relatively limited space for domestic interest rate cuts compared to the U.S.[2] - The market's liquidity transmission is not smooth, with institutional trading volume decreasing while retail trading volume is increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics[2] Sector Performance and Investment Strategy - Certain sectors, including utilities, retail, social services, and banking, show potential for upward price movement due to low selling pressure and favorable trading conditions[3] - The banking, non-banking financials, oil and gas, coal, utilities, and textile sectors are predicted to be undervalued based on their high return on equity (ROE) and low price-to-book (PB) ratios[3] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights concerns about the internal demand recovery's ability to absorb external shocks, with no consensus on the extent and direction of profit improvements expected in 2025[2] - Risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation, unexpected increases in tariffs, and economic sanctions, which could hinder recovery efforts[4]