策略深度报告20241218：2025年海外策略展望：没有逆转（大类资产篇）

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic outlook for 2025 is based on two core assumptions: a synchronized global interest rate cut cycle and a potential "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. economy[1] - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience amidst global economic downturns, while the impact of Trump's policies remains uncertain[1] Stock Market Projections - U.S. stocks are anticipated to follow a "V" shaped trajectory, with a potential downturn in the first half of 2025 followed by recovery[2] - The themes expected to continue in 2025 include "soft landing," "growth," "Trump trades," and "AI and mergers and acquisitions"[2] - AI and M&A activities are projected to remain significant, with global M&A volume increasing from $0.9 trillion in 2023 to $2.3 trillion in 2024[2] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to experience a bear market in 2025, with U.S. and Japanese long-term bonds facing volatility due to economic recovery and policy changes[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to stabilize between 4% and 4.5% throughout the year[3] Commodity Market Analysis - Gold is expected to maintain its attractiveness, with price growth potentially slowing in 2025 as trading shifts from sentiment-driven to fundamental factors[4] - Oil prices are likely to remain under pressure due to oversupply from non-OPEC countries, leading to continued low-level fluctuations[4] Currency and Exchange Rate Expectations - The U.S. dollar is projected to remain strong in 2025, influenced by robust economic performance and high investment returns[7] - Other currencies are expected to face depreciation pressures, with the euro likely to experience the most significant decline due to weak economic conditions[7]